CDA pollster in Richmond Times-Dispatch on EVs

As lawmakers in Richmond debate the commonwealth’s plans for the deployment of electric vehicles, or EVs, I was hired by a group called Centrist Democrats of America (CDA) to conduct a survey to determine how Virginians feel about EVs.

The head of the group, Hank Naughton, is a former Massachusetts legislator who for nearly two decades represented a rural, heavily working-class district. Naughton and his organization are seeking to help all Democrats better communicate with centrist voters. CDA wondered how people living in Virginia feel about EVs and the current policy to outlaw the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered vehicles in the commonwealth over the next decade.

Undoubtedly, a fully electric vehicle fleet in the U.S. would reduce tailpipe emissions, end our dependence on petroleum, and could help fight the existential threat of climate change. But for Democrats, politically speaking, could they pay a political price for pushing policies that would prevent Virginians from purchasing cars and trucks that run on fossil fuels? This is important, because if Democrats lose the trust of voters on the issue of EVs, it could thwart their goals for advancements in environmental issues (among others).

Keep in mind, current Virginia law mandates an increase in electric vehicle sales by requiring that a minimum percentage of vehicle sales in Virginia need to be electric, and this percentage would increase every year. As part of this law, Virginia may also have to adopt California’s next electric vehicle policy, which is a full ban on the sale of any new gasoline and diesel vehicles throughout the commonwealth starting in 2035. We polled Virginians on this matter and asked them if Virginia should follow California’s lead on EV sales or implement its own rules. The results should be something Democrats consider:

A strong majority of voters in Virginia are concerned about the effect of climate change (79%), including a majority of Democrats (94%), independents (78%) and Republicans (61%). However, only 25% strongly or even somewhat support adopting California’s rules, while 62% strongly or somewhat support Virginia implementing its own rules. This view is certainly true among Republican voters (77% support Virginia writing its own rules), but also among independents (72%) and even a plurality of Democratic voters (45% feel the state should write its own rules compared to 40% who feel the commonwealth should adopt California’s rules).

The reasons that Virginians seemingly have some hesitancy about the government banning the sale of new vehicles that use gas or diesel, or requiring people to purchase EVs, are based on two main factors. First, there is a strong belief that the automotive market is heading in the right direction and there is not a need for additional intervention at this point. And, second, there are other priorities for Virginia in general as well as for the environment.

Overall, just 16% of Virginians feel that the commonwealth should do whatever it can to get as many EVs on the road as quickly as possible (just 22% of Democrats and 20% of independents agree with this position). The vast majority of voters feel that either the market should be left alone (32% overall) or that government spending should focus on issues other than building out EV infrastructure (38%).

To further drive home the point on other priorities, according to our data, Virginians view increasing the number of electric vehicles as the least important thing the government could be spending more money on, far behind building new schools, fixing the commonwealth’s infrastructure, dealing with childhood hunger and providing more funding to law enforcement. Even among Democratic voters, increasing the number of EVs is at the bottom of the list (just 4% feel it is a top issue).

Lastly, because CDA wanted to better gauge the views of Democrats, our poll oversampled in Northern Virginia. In this area, the results mirrored those of Democrats and independents in other parts of the state. For example, 55% of voters in Northern Virginia feel that Virginia should write its own rules when it comes to EVs and not adopt California’s rules.

Our analysis is clear: Virginians are worried about the cost of gasoline and protecting the environment. Democrats in Richmond are smart to be in favor of EVs, but taking hardline positions like banning the sale of new gas-powered vehicles and implementing California’s EV policies is likely a step too far for a strong majority of Virginians and creates a real risk of undermining the progress already made and what is likely to happen in the near future.

Source: Column: Dems should avoid pushing California EV standards (richmond.com)